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Dow Jones Elliott Wave Analysis (10/03/2010) (Big Picture reviewed)

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Time To Switch to Cash: Elliott Wave’s Robert Prechter – CNBC

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Robert Prechter Blogs, Pictures, and more on WordPress

“Central banks may find themselves hiking into a weak recovery to quell asset prices, or they might compensate for the weakness in the interest rate and credit channels and allow asset prices to rise but risk inflating another bubble. Central banks could gain some much-needed flexibility by thinking outside the IT box – but whether they will make a dramatic move and switch to a PT regime remains to be seen…”

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* As indicated by the name of his company and his newsletter, Robert Prechter relies essentially on Elliott wave analysis to forecast stock market behavior.
* He has been very negative on stocks for the entire sample period, generally taking a very long-term view.
* Based on our judgment, Robert Prechter’s accuracy rate is about 29%, which is very poor. However, especially because of his very long forecasting horizon, the sample is much too small for reliable inference.
* In fact, Mr. Prechter’s reported forecasting horizon is so long that testing multiple independent forecasts within his or any evaluator’s lifetime is problematic.

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CXOAG Guru Grades Robert Prechter: 100-Year Bear?

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5 Small-Cap Gold Miners To Soar As Inflation Bites Back …

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The Fed's War on Cash

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Crude Oil Inflation Hedge Unwinding and the Recession.

China and other emerging markets are eyeing the fall in crude oil price to utilise huge trade surplus foreign currency reserves to buy up crude oil reserves exposure wherever possible, this has resulted in less of a decline for oil majors stock prices despite the 70% oil price crash. Crude oil as with all asset classes is being hit by the reversal of the inflation hedging that took place going into mid 2008 that saw crude oil bust through $100 towards $150, the original expectation was for the whole of this inflation hedging to unwind back through $100 and down towards a target of $80 with possible overshoot to the downside once the scale of the credit crisis fully manifested itself. As the oil price rally fed into much higher inflation statistics on the upside, so deleveraging of the inflation hedge is leading to self feeding deflation on the downside which is acting on pushing crude oils to much lower levels than could originally have been estimated.

The deep recession ensures that crude oil demand is being cut faster than that taken up by the emerging economic giants of China and India, also the stronger dollar has ensured that the actual falls in foreign currency terms has been less than for the United States. This implies continued weak trend for crude oil for the duration of the U.S. recession which is the key to crude oils trend for 2009, which given last months job losses of 533,000, the worst data in 34 years illustrates that the U.S. economy is a long way away from recovery with Europe not far behind in terms of economic contraction and therefore precludes a quick sustainable recovery for crude oil prices. However as always traders and investors need to concentrate on the actual price trend rather than the economic data as the price will move long before a change in the economic fundamentals becomes apparent.

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